Kentucky Derby 2026 Best Bet

The favorites on most folks list deserve that status. Renegade, Commandment and Further Ado are all proven performers that started their careers as two year-olds and have a body of work that supports development and a strong foundation. The fact that both Renegade and Commandment are by Into Mischief out of graded stakes winning mares only adds to their appeal. And Further Ado by Gun Runner is a half to graded stakes winner Kimbear.

Not too bad. But at their expected odds in a 20 horse field I’ll be looking to uncover some value.

My pedigree analysis identifies three possible candidates as potential value plays: Emerging Market, Incredibolt and So Happy.

From my pedigree perspective, all three have what it takes to win this race.

Emerging Market has only two starts with a six-week gap between the Derby and his final prep. But, he’s trained by Chad Brown and the best rider in the country has the mount. I just think this is too big an ask, both mentally and physically. This horse has shown mental toughness in his two wins and that’s important because this race is unlikely to overwhelm him and compromise a promising career.

Incredibolt, two-for-two over the Churchill surface, has effectively had one real race this year and that was seven weeks ago. Although he appears to be training forwardly, trying to win this race off such a light body of work in his sophomore season is a big ask.

So Happy is by champion sprinter, Runhappy. People will tend to dismiss him based on that fact but I think that would be a mistake. His dam adds depth to his pedigree in a way that works synergistically with Runhappy. And this horse is the only horse in this field that has won a graded stake race sprinting, the 7-furlong grade II San Vincente. That sounds downright old school. This horse is more tactical than most of his competitors and his Santa Anita Derby win was a perfect setup for this race. And first time Derby trainer, Mark Glatt, has not babied him in his training. The strong works Glatt has put into this colt are reminiscent of one of the only trainers who understands how to develop a young colt for the rigors of this race, Bob Baffert. And it does not hurt that Big Money Mike Smith has the mount.

So on Saturday, I’ll be So Happy!